South Charleston, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

373
FXUS61 KRLX 242327
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
727 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
With low Flash Flood Guidance west and heating east, issued a
Flood Watch for Flash Flooding for all but far northeast
portions of the area through tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A waffling front in / near the area and mid-level waves
  will keep clouds, showers, and the chance for mainly afternoon
  and evening thunderstorms, around through the balance of the
  Memorial Day weekend, as well as the first half of the
  upcoming work week. Rainfall could be locally heavy at times
  leading to flooding concerns, especially in areas that have
  recently received heavy rainfall. A Flood Watch for Flash
  Flooding has been issued for all but far northeast portions of
  the area through tonight to handle the current series of mid-
  level waves incoming.

- 2) The chance for showers and mainly afternoon and evening
  thunderstorms shifts southward Thursday through Friday, only
  to then possibly return northward again next weekend.

- 3) Temperatures hover above normal through the balance of the
  Memorial Day weekend and most of the upcoming short work week,
  before returning to near or slightly below normal on Friday
  into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Mid-level flat waves cross the area through tonight, ahead of a
mid/upper-level short wave trough axis, which crosses first
thing Monday morning. A weak surface boundary oozes into the
area from the west, sort of occluding a warm front over the
area, both boundaries oriented roughly north-south.

As for parameters integrated vertically through the column,
saturation through the column and limited daytime heating per
widespread cloud cover yield PW values in excess of 1.7 inches
and modest CAPE maximizing at around 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg.
0-6/0-8 km bulk shear values range in the modest 30-40 kt range
with low level shear 20-30 kts can support stronger storms and,
at the very least, updrafts strong enough to leverage the high
moisture content into heavy downpours.

Rainfall has so far today been more closely tied to the mid-level
flat waves, but modest heating may also focus convective
initiation along the boundaries this afternoon and evening. The
Storm Prediction Center has the County Warning area in a general
thunderstorm outlook for today and tonight, while the Weather
Prediction Center has expanded their existing Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall over the middle Ohio Valley eastward into the
mountains, based on breaks in the cloud cover that have allowed
more heating there.

All in all, saturated ground and air, somewhat slow storm
motion, more than scattered precipitation coverage, and
increasing HREF/REFS probabilities of 3-hour Flash Flood
Guidance exceedance will contribute to the Flash Flood threat.
Flash Flood Guidance is lowest in the middle Ohio Valley,
particularly along and just west of the Ohio River, where 1 and
even 3 hour values are under an inch.

The short wave trough exiting Monday morning shifts the offshore
turns the mid/upper-level flow to the west to southwest, but
with the confluence zone between the northern and southern
streams over northern to central portions of the forecast area.
This allows another series of flat waves coming out of a
southern stream trough to move northeastward into the
confluence zone Monday, and then turn eastward through it
Monday night. With it and and lingering surface boundaries, the
potential for showers and mainly diurnally-driven thunderstorms
continues across mainly southern and central portions of the
area. All the rainfall will continue to need monitored for
possible excessive runoff through the end of the Holiday
weekend.

For Tuesday into Wednesday, the northern stream long wave trough
over eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S. lifts
out, allowing the confluence zone to shift north. This allows
the moistere-laden air mass to shift northward, and what is
left of the southern stream short wave trough to traverse the
area. This, in turn, brings th heavy rainfall threat back
northward as well.

With relatively light flow associated with the southern stream,
the severe threat is low, and the Storm Prediction Center
carries a southward-shifting general thunderstorm outlook.

The Weather Prediction Center limits the Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall to far southern portions of the area on Monday, before
shifting it northward again Tuesday through Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A northern stream short wave trough and then a northern stream
low amplify the east-coast long-wave trough again, in tandem
with long-wave ridging building northwest of the forecast area
late Wednesday through Friday. This drives a west to east
oriented surface cold front southward into, if not through, the
area Thursday into Friday, shunting the moisture-laden air
mass, and hence the chance for mainly diurnal showers and
thunderstorms southward and, by Friday, perhaps south of the
forecast area entirely.

There is uncertainty as to whether the northern stream lifts out
or stays in place next weekend. The current forecast brings the
chance for showers and mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms back northward into the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Temperatures hover above normal through the balance of the
Memorial Day weekend and into the upcoming short work week,
especially on lows, with highs somewhat muffled amid the active
weather pattern. Temperatures then trend at least back down to
normal at the end of the work week and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Showers and storms will continue to move east, gradually
decreasing in intensity after 04Z.

Expect brief MVFR and IFR restrictions in vicinity of storms,
and the possibility for strong, erratic wind gusts.

Overnight, particularly after 04-06Z, expect a gradual lowering
of ceilings and visibilities to widespread IFR and local/areas
of LIFR, with gradual improvement to widespread MVFR after 16Z
Monday, particularly across the lowlands, with some remaining
IFR continuing to be possible across the mountains including at
sites KEKN and KBKW.

Additional showers and storms are expected on Monday, however,
the bulk of the activity will be south of the Ohio River. Many
lowland locations should improve to VFR after 20Z, but, expect
at least brief MVFR conditions in showers and storms at times.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of storms, and associated
restrictions may vary from forecast. Timing of improvement from
IFR conditions Monday morning may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 05/25/26
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    L    L    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR remains possible at times from Monday evening into at least
Wednesday, with mainly afternoon and evening showers and/or
thunderstorms, as well as overnight fog and/or low stratus.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Monday for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>031-033-034-039-515>522.
OH...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Monday for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Monday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Monday for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...SL